The cliche that any respectable NFL contender requires, at minimum, a “good” quarterback is such a truism that merely stating it seems to be nearly unnecessary. In my life, I chose my favorite team in large part because the Denver Broncos, with John Elway at the helm, happened to be champions right around the time I became interested in the game (being from Canada I have no local team). I suspect that such a story lies at the heart of fandom everywhere, especially in the case of those football unfortunates that have no local or ancestral team to cheer for. But, maybe, it is fair to ask exactly what qualifies as a good quarterback at this point in NFL history. Consider these three points.
1) Dan Marino’s yardage record fell this year to Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Further, the record didn’t so much “fall” as it was utterly annihilated. Although anyone would consider those two amongst the sport’s best, Matthew Stafford (with 5038 yards) came awfully close to bumping Marino all the way to fourth on the all time list.
2) Neither Brees nor Brady is widely considered to be the “best” QB in the game right now: a title held by the Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was over 800 yards behind Brees and threw one less touchdown pass, although he played one less game. However, what set Rodgers apart was his ability to almost never get intercepted: throwing six all year. Brees, on the other hand, threw fourteen at a rate double Rodgers. Granted, difference is somewhat mitigated when we consider how many passes each threw. Rodgers was picked off on 0.01% of his passes while Brees settled at a 0.02% rate. The title belongs to Rodgers largely based on his teams record and first place standing in the NFC and league wide: title he nor his Packers would not have had Brees’s New Orleans Saints won the closely contested week one game between the two.
3) None of the above qualify as the most discussed quarterback of the past year. For that distinction we turn to Tim Tebow: the current quarterback of the aforementioned Denver Broncos. At this point it is clear that Tebow makes relatively little sense as a QB because he is the rarest of combinations: a passer that both is not good at throwing a football and is yet also a “winner.” We will come back to Tebow.
So, having thus muddied the waters, let’s look at the quarterbacks who have ostensibly been the most successful this year, having taken their teams to the postseason.
SECTION ONE: ROOKIES
The Cincinnati Bengals’ Andy Dalton and the Houston Texans’ T.J. Yates conveniently not only share a similar amount of professional experience, they are also playing one another, guaranteeing we will see one rookie in the next round. While Dalton is a sixteen game starter, who briefly challenged Carolina’s Cam Newton for rookie of the year honors among media gossipers, Yates is the ultimate placeholder: a third string backup behind the eminently competent Matt Shaub and the eminent draft bust Matt Leinhart. To be honest, this game is about neither of these players. The Texans are favorites because they are both a home team and they feature a run game with both a dominant back (Arian Foster) and dominant scheme (Gary Kubiak’s zone run scheme). Dalton is likely the objectively “better” player despite his late season downturn; however, Yates has been far from the disaster he was suspected of being. Suffice to say, neither Dalton nor Yates ranks very high on the list of reasons to like either of these teams but, surprisingly, neither inspires the doubt and vitriol that many other rookies have inspired in past postseaons.
SECTION TWO: THE PRETTY GOOD PLAYERS
Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, Detroit’s Matt Stafford, the New York Giants’ Eli Manning, and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger all qualify under a similar heading. All have some credentials that would suggest they might be elite, especially when compared statistically against any other era in football, any yet they are clearly below the Rodgers, Brees, and Brady tier.
While Stafford crossed the 5000 yard threshold, Eli Manning missed by merely 67 yards, although throwing twelve less touchdowns. Both are capable of dominant statical performances and are also widely regarded as being capable of melting down at inopportune moments (generally, Stafford with injuries and Manning with ineffectiveness). Perhaps what is most noticeable about both quarterback’s offences is the quality of their receivers. New York’s Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and, to a lesser extent, Mario Manningham are among the deepest and most talented groups in the NFL (comparable to other talented bunches such as those in Green Bay, New Orleans and Atlanta). Detroit, lacking the depth of New York, features Calvin Johnson: a player widely regarded as the most uncoverable weapon in the NFL and one who radically alters not only game plans but defensive possibilities, opening up space for secondary options such as tight end Brendan Pettigrew. The Lions and the Giants both feature excellent offences bolstered by arms capable of delivering the ball to talented playmakes.
Roethlisberger has an established history of being a “winner” for the Steelers although he is hobbled this year by a lingering high ankle sprain. Unlike Stafford and Manning, players whose physical talent resides almost entirely in their arms, Roethlisberger is as physically imposing as most tight ends and is famous for being to withstand pass rushes despite the failures of his blocking. Pittsburgh’s passing offence relies of Roethlisberger’s ability to avoid sacks almost single handily because the team features one of the league’s worst offensive lines. The recent announcement that Maurkice Pouncey will sit out only further deteriorates the quality of the line. Although Roethlisberger threw for the second most yards of his career, Pittsburgh's offence has suffered from the collapse of its once dominant run game: a fact only exacerbated by the recent injury to Rashard Mendenhall (who, although not dominant, leaves behind only Isaac Redman in his wake). The question is whether or not being a “winner” has any real effect on whether Roethlisberger and the Steelers can in fact win.
Ryan is somewhat of an outlier in this group: possessing neither dominant statistics nor past track record. Further, he suffers from rather extreme splits in which he is almost a completely different player when put indoors on turf (an all star) rather than outdoor grass surfaces (rather mundane). Outdoors in New York it is more likely that we will see the version of Ryan that falls somewhat the quality expected from and elite quarterback. Like Stafford and Manning, Ryan benefits from a dominant receiving corps (Roddy White and Julio Jones) and is fortunate to also have a quality running back (Michael Turner). Realistically, the Falcons’ offence is built more on overall quality rather than extreme talent at the quarterback position which, if Ryan does in fact struggle somewhat outdoors, may actually benefit them.
SECTION THREE: THE CONUNDRUM
As noted above, Tim Tebow is the exception to all these rules. Here are the facts:
- He cannot consistently throw a football at a level we would usually attribute to a professional thrower of footballs.
- He reads defences slowly and is incapable of making many throws that are integral to many of the best NFL offences.
- Every so often he is capable of astounding feats of physical performance: both throwing and running.
- He has been remarkably good at winning football games.
Unlike the above group, Tebow has almost no support from his receivers and the Broncos did him no favours trading away Brandan Lloyd, his best receiver, midseason. While Roethlisberger is often given credit for “winning” in a way I question, Tebow is an even more extreme example of giving credit where is it only possible due. It is almost indisputable that the Broncos win streak this year was due to a dominant run by their defence, an incredible amount of luck, and poor decisions by opposing teams. However, it is indisputable that despite his sometimes terrible play, Tebow did have a few magical (a carefully chosen word in this case) moments that helped his team win games. I suspect that Tebow will not have a long career as a starting quarterback; however, my being wrong would really only fit within the narrative that has dominated Tebow’s professional career thus far. At this point, Tebow has proven almost nothing and, if the Broncos are blown out by Pittsburgh as many suspect they will, he may fade away. If the Broncos win, and Tebow has anything other than a terrible game, his place in the quarterback hierarchy will, perhaps, become clearer.
SECTION FOUR: SUPERSTARS
Brees, Brady, and Rodgers, both in the playoffs and generally, are in a class to themselves. The fact that all three play for teams with horrible defences, and that they also play for the three teams with the best championship odds, only underlines their cumulative dominance. Despite the work of other players at the position and the changing definition of “great,’ and despite the possibility that none of them will actually win a championship this year, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers seem to point to the continuing role of great quarterbacks at the heart of great teams.
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